Will Petrol And Diesel Cars Be Banned In The Future?
The global conversation around climate change has intensified recently, with governments seeking ways to reduce harmful emissions and combat the escalating environmental crisis. One of the most significant contributors to emissions is the transportation sector. As a result, many countries are now considering or implementing plans to phase out petrol and diesel cars in favour of more sustainable alternatives.
This shift has gained momentum following international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and the recent COP26 summit in Glasgow. These landmark events have prompted nations to reassess their approach to transportation and commit to more ambitious climate goals.
South Africa, as a significant player in the African automotive industry, finds itself at a critical juncture in this global transition.
In this blog post, we’ll explore the worldwide movement towards banning petrol and diesel cars, take a look at South Africa’s strategy for adapting to this change, and examine the potential impacts on car owners both globally and within South Africa.
Global Plans For Banning Traditional Fuel
The Paris Climate Agreement and the COP26 (Glasgow Climate Pact) have been instrumental in driving global action against climate change. Nearly 200 countries have negotiated possible actions to reduce harmful emissions, with many pledging to ban fossil fuel vehicle sales before or by 2040.
About 30 countries and states worldwide have pledged to achieve this goal before or by 2040. Developed countries include Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK, while developing countries like Kenya, India, Cambodia, Mexico, and Rwanda are also joining the movement.
Norway is leading the way with plans to ban all ICE vehicle sales by 2025. Currently, 25% of Norway’s vehicles as electric and they have a bicycle-friendly infrastructure, making its goal more attainable.
The European Union aims to ban sales of ICE vehicles by 2035, although Germany has negotiated an exception for vehicles running on synthetic fuels.
China plans to reduce ICE car sales to 50% by 2035, with the other half comprising EVs, hybrids or fuel-cell vehicles.
The United States is targeting 2035 for phasing out ICE vehicles but is taking a state-by-state approach.
The Strategy For South Africa
South Africa is considering a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035, aligning with global trends. The country’s strategy includes banning ICE vehicle sales for both passenger and freight use from 2035.
This ambitious plan requires significant investment in zero-emission vehicle infrastructure, with an estimated R4 billion needed to develop supporting infrastructure, including around 100,000 public charging units by 2030.
A key component of South Africa’s strategy is shifting to rail. The plan aims to move 15-20% of road traffic to rail, requiring substantial investment in rail infrastructure, estimated at least R300 billion.
South Africa needs to meet its revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as set by the UNFCCC, which requires a 350-420 million tonnes reduction in emissions by 2030. This goal shows the urgency of transitioning away from ICE vehicles, as 90% of the country’s transport emissions come from road-based transport.
South Africa faces unique challenges in this transition. Fossil-fuel cars are integral to the current transport system and economy, making the shift more complex. Additionally, persistent load-shedding issues may strain the electrical grid with increased EV adoption.
The Impact On Car Owners
What this means for the everyday driver is that they will see a shift towards electric and other zero-emission vehicles in showrooms.
As this shift happens there could be promising options for repurposing existing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. One viable approach is converting these vehicles to run on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which can significantly reduce emissions and offer potential cost savings compared to traditional gasoline or diesel fuels. Another exciting development is the installation of synthetic electric vehicle (EV) kits.
Initially, EVs may have higher costs, but prices are expected to decrease as technology develops. Governments may introduce financial incentives to encourage EV adoption.
Car owners will need to adapt to new refuelling habits, relying on charging stations instead of traditional petrol stations. This shift will require a significant expansion of charging infrastructure.
While the upfront costs may be higher, EV owners can expect long-term savings due to lower running and maintenance costs than ICE vehicles. However, as the ban approaches, the resale value of petrol and diesel cars may decrease.
Public transport is also set to change, with increased investment in rail infrastructure potentially providing commuters more efficient and affordable options.
While the transition to zero-emission vehicles presents challenges, it also offers opportunities for innovation, improved public transport, and a cleaner environment. These are exciting times for the automotive industry as we head into a new greener era!
